The rality of Decision-Making

Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive process) resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice.^[1] The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.

Human performance in decision terms has been the subject of active research from several perspectives. From a psychological perspective, it is necessary to examine individual decisions in the context of a set of needs, preferences an individual has and values they seek. From a cognitive perspective, the decision making process must be regarded as a continuous process integrated in the interaction with the environment. From a normative perspective, the analysis of individual decisions is concerned with the logic of decision makingand rationality and the invariant choice it leads to.^[2]

Yet, at another level, it might be regarded as a problem solving activity which is terminated when a satisfactory solution is reached. Therefore, decision making is a reasoning or emotional process which can be rational or irrational, can be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions.

One must keep in mind that most decisions are made unconsciously. Jim Nightingale, Author of Think Smart-Act Smart, states that "we simply decide without thinking much about the decision process." In a controlled environment, such as a classroom, instructors encourage students to weigh pros and cons before making a decision. However in the real world, most of our decisions are made unconsciously in our mind because frankly, it would take too much time to sit down and list the pros and cons of each decision we must make on a daily basis.

Logical decision making is an important part of all science-based professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a given area to making informed decisions. For example, medical decision making often involves making a diagnosis and selecting an appropriate treatment. Some research using naturalistic methods shows, however, that in situations with higher time pressure, higher stakes, or increased ambiguities, experts use intuitive decision making rather than structured approaches, following a recognition primed decision approach to fit a set of indicators into the expert's experience and immediately arrive at a satisfactory course of action without weighing alternatives. Recent robust decision efforts have formally integrated uncertainty into the decision making process. However, Decision Analysis, recognized and included uncertainties with a structured and rationally justifiable method of decision making since its conception in 1964.

A major part of decision making involves the analysis of a finite set of alternatives described in terms of some evaluative criteria. These criteria may be benefit or cost in nature. Then the problem might be to rank these alternatives in terms of how attractive they are to the decision maker(s) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Another goal might be to just find the best alternative or to determine the relative total priority of each alternative (for instance, if alternatives represent projects competing for funds) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Solving such problems is the focus of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) also known as multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). This area of decision making, although it is very old and has attracted the interest of many researchers and practitioners, is still highly debated as there are many MCDA / MCDM methods which may yield very different results when they are applied on exactly the same data.^[3] This leads to the formulation of a decision making paradox.

Problem Analysis vs Decision Making

It is important to differentiate between problem analysis and decision making. The concepts are completely separate from one another. Problem analysis must be done first, then the information gathered in that process may be used towards decision making.^[4]

Problem Analysis

§  Analyze performance, what should the results be against what they actually are

§  Problems are merely deviations from performance standards

§  Problem must be precisely identified and described

§  Problems are caused by some change from a distinctive feature

§  Something can always be used to distinguish between what has and hasn't been effected by a cause

§  Causes to problems can be deducted from relevant changes found in analyzing the problem

§  Most likely cause to a problem is the one that exactly explains all the facts

Decision Making

§  Objectives must first be established

§  Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance

§  Alternative actions must be developed

§  The alternative must be evaluated against all the objectives

§  The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the tentative decision

§  The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible consequences

§  The decisive actions are taken, and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse consequences from becoming problems and starting both systems (problem analysis and decision making) all over again

§  There are steps that are generally followed that result in a decision model that can be used to determine an optimal production plan.

§  In a situation featuring conflict, role-playing is helpful for predicting decisions to be made by involved parties.

Decision Planning

Making a decision without planning is fairly common, but does not often end well. Planning allows for decisions to be made comfortably and in a smart way. Planning makes decision making a lot more simpler than it is. Decision will get four benefits out of planning: 1. Planning give chance to the establishment of independent goals. It is a conscious and directed series of choices. 2. Planning provides a standard of measurement. It is is a measurement of whether you are going towards or further away from your goal. 3. Planning converts values to action. You think twice about the plan and decide what will help advance your plan best. 4. Planning allows to limited resources to be committed in an orderly way. Always govern the use of what is limited to you (e.g money, time, etc..) ^[7]

Everyday techniques

Some of the decision making techniques people use in everyday life include:

§  Pros and Cons: Listing the advantages and disadvantages of each option, popularized by Plato and Benjamin Franklin. Contrast the costs and benefits of all alternatives. Also called Rational decision making.

§  Simple Prioritization: Choosing the alternative with the highest probability-weighted utility for each alternative (see Decision Analysis)

§  Satisficing: Examining alternatives only until an acceptable one is found.

§  Acquiesce to a person in authority or an "expert", just following orders

§  Flipism: Flipping a coin, cutting a deck of playing cards, and other random or coincidence methods

§  Prayer, tarot cards, astrology, augurs, revelation, or other forms of divination

§  Taking the most opposite action compared to the advice of mistrusted authorities (parents, police officers, partners ...)

§  Opportunity cost: calculating the opportunity cost of each options and decide the decision.

§  Bureaucratic: Set up criteria for automated decisions.

An example, where the idea of decision making was added, was when doctors implemented a CT scan. At that point, a program evaluated the necessity of such option by comparison to other imaging techniques, as well as it protects doctors in cases of malpractice suing cases. Reference: Schenkman, L., (2011). Decision Making. Radiology. DOI: 10.1126/science.331.6020.1003. Retrieved April 8th, 2012, from <http://www.sciencemag.org.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/content/331/6020/1003.full>.

§  Political: Negotiate choices among interest groups.

Decision-Making Stages

Developed by B. Aubrey Fisher, there are four stages that should be involved in all group decision making. These stages, or sometimes called phases, are important for the decision-making process to begin

Orientation stage- This phase is where members meet for the first time and start to get to know each other.

Conflict stage- Once group members become familiar with each other, disputes, little fights and arguments occur. Group members eventually work it out.

Emergence stage- The group begins to clear up vague opinions by talking about them.

Reinforcement stage- Members finally make a decision, while justifying themselves that it was the right decision.

It is said that critical norms in a group improves the quality of decisions, while the majority of opinions (called consensus norms) do not. This is due to collaboration between one another, and when group members get used to, and familiar with, each other, they will tend to argue and create more of a dispute to agree upon one decision. This does not mean that all group members fully agree--they may not want argue further just to be liked by other group members or to "fit in".

Decision-making steps

Each step in the decision making process may include social, cognitive and cultural obstacles to successfully negotiating dilemmas. It has been suggested that becoming more aware of these obstacles allows one to better anticipate and overcome them. The Arkansas Program presents eight stages of moral decision making based on the work of James Rest:

1.    Establishing community: creating and nurturing the relationships, norms, and procedures that will influence how problems are understood and communicated. This stage takes place prior to and during a moral dilemma

2.    Perception: recognizing that a problem exists

3.    Interpretation: identifying competing explanations for the problem, and evaluating the drivers behind those interpretations

4.    Judgment: sifting through various possible actions or responses and determining which is more justifiable

5.    Motivation: examining the competing commitments which may distract from a more moral course of action and then prioritizing and committing to moral values over other personal, institutional or social values

6.    Action: following through with action that supports the more justified decision. Integrity is supported by the ability to overcome distractions and obstacles, developing implementing skills, and ego strength

7.    Reflection in action

8.    Reflection on action

When in an organization and faced with a difficult decision, there are several steps one can take to ensure the best possible solutions will be decided. These steps are put into seven effective ways to go about this decision making process (McMahon 2007).

The first step - Outline your goal and outcome. This will enable decision makers to see exactly what they are trying to accomplish and keep them on a specific path.

The second step - Gather data. This will help decision makers have actual evidence to help them come up with a solution.

The third step - Brainstorm to develop alternatives. Coming up with more than one solution enables you to see which one can actually work.

The fourth step - List pros and cons of each alternative. With the list of pros and cons, you can eliminate the solutions that have more cons than pros, making your decision easier.

The fifth step - Make the decision. Once you analyze each solution, you should pick the one that has many pros (or the pros that are most significant), and is a solution that everyone can agree with.

The sixth step - Immediately take action. Once the decision is picked, you should implement it right away.

The seventh step - Learn from, and reflect on the decision making. This step allows you to see what you did right and wrong when coming up, and putting the decision to use.

Cognitive and personal biases

Biases can creep into our decision making processes. Many different people have made a decision about the same question (e.g. "Should I have a doctor look at this troubling breast cancer symptom I've discovered?" "Why did I ignore the evidence that the project was going over budget?") and then craft potential cognitive interventions aimed at improving decision making outcomes.

Below is a list of some of the more commonly debated cognitive biases.

§  Selective search for evidence (a.k.a. Confirmation bias in psychology) (Scott Plous, 1993) – We tend to be willing to gather facts that support certain conclusions but disregard other facts that support different conclusions. Individuals who are highly defensive in this manner show significantly greater left prefrontal cortex activity as measured by EEG than do less defensive individuals.

§  Premature termination of search for evidence – We tend to accept the first alternative that looks like it might work.

§  Inertia – Unwillingness to change thought patterns that we have used in the past in the face of new circumstances.

§  Selective perception – We actively screen-out information that we do not think is important. (See prejudice.) In one demonstration of this effect, discounting of arguments with which one disagrees (by judging them as untrue or irrelevant) was decreased by selective activation of right prefrontal cortex.

§  Wishful thinking or optimism bias – We tend to want to see things in a positive light and this can distort our perception and thinking.

§  Choice-supportive bias occurs when we distort our memories of chosen and rejected options to make the chosen options seem more attractive.

§  Recency – We tend to place more attention on more recent information and either ignore or forget more distant information. (See semantic priming.) The opposite effect in the first set of data or other information is termed Primacy effect (Plous, 1993).

§  Repetition bias – A willingness to believe what we have been told most often and by the greatest number of different sources.

§  Anchoring and adjustment – Decisions are unduly influenced by initial information that shapes our view of subsequent information.

§  Group think – Peer pressure to conform to the opinions held by the group.

§  Source credibility bias – We reject something if we have a bias against the person, organization, or group to which the person belongs: We are inclined to accept a statement by someone we like. (See prejudice.)

§  Incremental decision making and escalating commitment – We look at a decision as a small step in a process and this tends to perpetuate a series of similar decisions. This can be contrasted with zero-based decision making. (See slippery slope.)

§  Attribution asymmetry – We tend to attribute our success to our abilities and talents, but we attribute our failures to bad luck and external factors. We attribute other's success to good luck, and their failures to their mistakes.

§  Role fulfillment (Self Fulfilling Prophecy) – We conform to the decision making expectations that others have of someone in our position.

§  Underestimating uncertainty and the illusion of control – We tend to underestimate future uncertainty because we tend to believe we have more control over events than we really do. We believe we have control to minimize potential problems in our decisions.

§  Framing bias is best avoided by using numeracy with absolute measures of efficacy

Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce cognitive biases in decision making.

Opinion about this article :

Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive process) resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice. The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making

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